Hollywood Braces for Another Labor Showdown as Union Talks Approach

Six months. A 17 percent drop in entertainment jobs in the Los Angeles area. Billions of dollars in lost economic activity across California.

Those are the scars left by the historic double writers and actors strikes that shook Hollywood just three years ago. Now, with major union contracts expiring in 2026, the industry is facing an uneasy question once again: could it happen all over again?

Negotiations for Hollywood’s most powerful unions are fast approaching. Performers represented by SAG-AFTRA will begin talks on Feb. 9, with their contract expiring June 30. The Writers Guild of America is expected to start negotiations around March 16, less than two months before its May 1 deadline. The Directors Guild of America follows, aiming for talks beginning May 11 ahead of its June 30 expiration.

An Industry Still in Recovery

These talks are unfolding against a backdrop of deep uncertainty. Hollywood employment has been battered by a production slowdown, corporate consolidation and the steady migration of film and TV work overseas. According to a report from Otis College of Art and Design, Los Angeles had 25 percent fewer entertainment jobs in 2025 than it did just three years earlier.

Layoffs have only added to the anxiety. In 2025, Paramount announced plans to cut 2,000 jobs following its merger with Skydance. Meanwhile, a proposed acquisition that would fold Warner Bros. into Netflix has raised fears of even more job losses in an already fragile market.

Given that reality, some believe neither side can afford a fight.

“Our industry is reeling,” says one top talent lawyer. “I don’t think the studios can afford it, and I don’t think the talent can afford it.”

Others See a Battle Brewing

But there is a sharply different view gaining traction inside Hollywood. For many union leaders and labor advocates, artificial intelligence represents an existential threat — and 2026 may be the moment to draw a hard line.

“This is make-or-break for guilds,” says prominent entertainment attorney Schuyler Moore. “It’s all AI. I think this is going to be a big fight.”

AI protections were introduced in the 2023 contracts, but many unions believe those safeguards need to be strengthened before studios move faster than the rules can keep up.

SAG-AFTRA’s Long Runway

By starting talks in February, SAG-AFTRA has given itself a relatively generous window to negotiate before its June 30 deadline. Chief negotiator Duncan Crabtree-Ireland has emphasized caution over confrontation, saying a strike is possible but far from inevitable.

“There’s no reason we should not be able to reach a fair deal,” he said during a panel at the Consumer Electronics Show.

SAG-AFTRA’s leadership is expected to push for stronger AI protections, higher wages and reforms to casting practices. Newly elected president Sean Astin has been blunt about the economic pressure on members.

“People are having a hard time qualifying for health care,” Astin says. “They need cost-of-living and inflation adjustments. People need to make more money.”

More Pressure on the Writers and Directors

The situation looks more tense for the WGA. With negotiations starting just weeks before its contract expires, some insiders worry about the risk of another standoff — especially given the guild’s reputation for aggressive bargaining.

The DGA, by contrast, is known for a more diplomatic approach, though it too faces a tight timeline.

Health care funding is expected to be one of the most contentious issues for both unions. According to recent tax filings, the WGA health plan lost a combined $122 million over fiscal years 2023 and 2024, while the DGA plan lost $43 million in the same period. Rising medical costs, fewer working members and lingering strike fallout have all taken a toll.

DGA leaders have already signaled that employer contributions must rise to stabilize benefits. Studio representatives, meanwhile, may argue that costs need to be contained elsewhere.

Employers Seek Stability

On the management side, labor peace has become a clear priority. The Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers has floated the idea of five-year contracts instead of the traditional three-year deals — a dramatic shift from norms that date back decades. Unions are unlikely to agree unless those longer terms come with major financial and structural gains.

A Delicate Moment for Hollywood

As SAG-AFTRA leads off negotiations, its leaders are avoiding inflammatory language, focusing instead on shared interests. National board member Jason George describes the strategy simply: identify problems that affect workers now but will eventually hurt studios too — and solve them together.

Whether that cooperative tone holds may determine Hollywood’s immediate future. With jobs scarce, costs rising and AI advancing fast, the next few months could decide whether the industry finds stability — or once again heads toward the picket lines.